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بررسی تاثیر نااطمینانی سیاستهای اقتصادی بر مطالبات معوق بانکی در استان فارس | ||
سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی | ||
مقاله 2، دوره 3، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 12، بهمن 1403، صفحه 31-57 اصل مقاله (919.08 K) | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/jepr.2024.142316.1189 | ||
نویسندگان | ||
امین نوری کوچی* 1؛ ایوب فرامرزی2؛ فرزانه شالیاری1 | ||
1دکتری اقتصاد، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران | ||
2استادیار، پژوهشکده آمار، تهران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
امروزه از نااطمینانی سیاستهای اقتصادی بهعنوان یکی از عوامل مهم و اثرگذار بر عملکرد فعالین اقتصادی یاد میشود. این اثرگذاری در کشورهای درحالتوسعه به دلیل تغییرات مکرر سیاستی که توسط دولتها اتخاذ میشود، اهمیت ویژهای دارد. در این میان، نظام بانکی به دلیل رابطه گستردهای که با سایر بخشهای اقتصادی دارد از این تأثیرپذیری مستثنی نیست. نااطمینانی سیاستهای اقتصادی میتواند از طریق اثرگذاری بر مطالبات معوق بانکی و در نتیجه افزایش ریسک اعتباری کارکرد صحیح نظام بانکی را با مشکل مواجه میسازد. این موضوع در اقتصاد کشورهایی مانند ایران که به شکل قابلتوجهی متکی به تأمین مالی از نظام بانکی هستند از اهمیت دو چندانی برخوردار است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثر نااطمینانی سیاستهای اقتصادی بر مطالبات معوق در استان فارس برای دوره زمانی 1400 - 1390 با استفاده از روش GMM است. نتایج نشان داد که افزایش نااطمینانی در سیاستهای اقتصادی، افزایش مطالبات معوق بانکی را به دنبال دارد. همچنین افزایش نرخ بهره، نرخ بیکاری، نسبت مصارف به منابع بانکی و تمرکز بانکی اثر مثبت بر مطالبات معوق بانکی دارد. در عین حال افزایش نرخ تورم، اندازه بانک و سهم بانکهای خصوصی از منابع بانکی، با کاهش مطالبات معوق بانکی همراه است. پیشنهاد میگردد که سیاستگزاران اقتصادی با حرکت به سوی شفافسازی در سیاستهای مالی، پولی و ارزی به کاهش نااطمینانی و افزایش پیشبینیپذیری اقتصاد و متعاقباً کاهش مطالبات معوق بانکی کمک نمایند. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
مطالبات معوق بانکی؛ نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی؛ روش گشتاور تعمیمیافته پویا | ||
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Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 10(3): 251-7 | ||
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