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بررسی پویاییهای میان نااطمینانی کسری بودجه و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: کاربردی از آنالیز موجک پیوسته | ||
| سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی | ||
| مقاله 5، دوره 4، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 16، دی 1404، صفحه 137-163 اصل مقاله (1.34 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/jepr.2025.144234.1293 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سیده زهرا اصغری حسین آبادی* 1؛ صالح طاهری بازخانه* 2؛ نرجس زمانی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی کارشناسیارشد اقتصاد نظری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| درک رابطه میان نااطمینانی کسری بودجه و رشد اقتصادی برای اقتصادهای وابسته به منابع طبیعی مانند ایران که با نوسان شدید درآمدی و بیثباتی ساختاری مواجهاند، اهمیت زیادی دارد. این نااطمینانی با ایجاد محیطی غیرقابلپیشبینی برای فعالان اقتصادی، تصمیمگیریهای کلان در زمینه سرمایهگذاری و مصرف را تحتتأثیر قرار میدهد. از سوی دیگر، تحولات بخش حقیقی نیز با اثرگذاری بر درآمدها و هزینههای دولت، میتواند به تشدید نااطمینانی بودجه منجر شود. پژوهش حاضر باهدف واکاوی این رابطه دوسویه، به بررسی پویاییهای میان نااطمینانی تراز عملیاتی بودجه و رشد اقتصادی حقیقی در دوره فصلی ۱۳۷۰ تا ۱۴۰۱ میپردازد. برای این منظور، از روششناسی نوین تبدیل موجک پیوسته و تحلیل در حوزه زمان - فرکانس بهره گرفته شده است. یافتههای کلیدی، وجود یک رابطه نامتقارن و حساس به چرخه تجاری را نشان میدهد: در دورههای رونق، بهویژه رونق نفتی، رشد اقتصادی به تشدید نااطمینانی بودجه در آینده منجر میشود؛ در مقابل، طی دورههای رکود و تحریم، این نااطمینانی به عاملی بازدارنده برای سرمایهگذاری تبدیل شده و رکود را تعمیق میبخشد. این دینامیسم، یک تله بیثباتی را آشکار میسازد که در آن، اقتصاد میان رشد ناپایدار و رکود عمیق نوسان میکند. در نهایت، در افق بلندمدت، هیچ رابطه معنادار آماری میان این دو متغیر یافت نشد که نشان میدهد این نوسانات چرخهای، مسیر رشد بلندمدت اقتصاد را تعیین نمیکنند. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| رشد اقتصادی؛ نااطمینانی سیاست مالی؛ کسری بودجه؛ تحلیل زمان-فرکانس | ||
| مراجع | ||
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آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 125 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 11 |
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