| تعداد نشریات | 31 |
| تعداد شمارهها | 427 |
| تعداد مقالات | 4,065 |
| تعداد مشاهده مقاله | 5,529,637 |
| تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله | 5,714,106 |
تحلیل اثر نامتقارن بی ثباتی اقتصادی بر فقر خانوار و نابرابری درآمد در ایران | ||
| سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی | ||
| دوره 5، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 17، فروردین 1405، صفحه 97-136 اصل مقاله (1.65 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/jepr.2025.144051.1281 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| دلشاد رحمان مرانه1؛ شهریار زروکی* 2؛ احمد جعفری صمیمی* 3؛ مانی موتمنی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد بخش عمومی، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران | ||
| 3استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| کاهش فقر و نابرابری از مهمترین اهداف سیاستگذاری اقتصادی است و ثبات اقتصادی نقش اساسی در ایجاد زمینه رشد پایدار و بهبود توزیع درآمد دارد. در ایران نیز با توجه به اهمیت این مسائل، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی اثر نامتقارن بیثباتی اقتصادی بر فقر خانوار و نابرابری درآمد طی دوره ۱۴۰۲–۱۳۶۳ میپردازد. در این مطالعه، شاخص شکاف فقر و شاخص فوستر–گریر–توربک بر اساس دادههای درآمد–هزینه خانوار محاسبه و الگوی اقتصادسنجی با استفاده از رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفههای توزیعی غیرخطی برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد که بیثباتی اقتصادی در بلندمدت اثری مستقیم و نامتقارن بر فقر دارد، بهگونهای که کاهش بیثباتی تأثیر مطلوب بیشتری نسبت به اثر نامطلوب افزایش آن دارد. همچنین تورم و رشد اقتصادی موجب افزایش فقر و درآمد سرانه موجب کاهش آن میشود، در حالی که اندازه دولت اثر معناداری ندارد. یافتهها درباره نابرابری درآمد نیز نشان میدهد که بیثباتی اقتصادی در بلندمدت اثری مستقیم و نامتقارن دارد و کاهش بیثباتی اثر مطلوب بیشتری نسبت به افزایش آن دارد. علاوه بر این، تورم، نسبت یارانه به مخارج دولت و بیکاری نابرابری را افزایش میدهند و با توجه به اثر مستقیم درآمد سرانه و اثر معکوس مجذور آن، فرضیه کوزنتس رد نمیشود. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| فقر خانوار؛ نابرابری درآمد؛ بیثباتی اقتصادی؛ رهیافت نامتقارن؛ ایران | ||
| مراجع | ||
|
Abdi, A. H., Mohamed, A. A., Mohamed, A. A., & Mohamed, A. A. (2025). Do globalization, foreign direct investment, and inflation drive income inequality? Evidence from Somalia within the Kuznets curve hypothesis. Research in Globalization, 100301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100301
Abounoori, E. & Abbasi Ghadi, R. (2007). Economic growth effect on poverty in Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 9(30), 23-52. (In Persian)
Agénor, P. R. (2004). Macroeconomic adjustment and the poor: analytical issues and cross‐country evidence. Journal of economic surveys, 18(3), 351-408. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0950-0804.2004.00225.x
Ali, A. (2016). Issue of income inequality under the perceptive of macroeconomic instability. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 56(1), 121-155.
Apergis, N., & Cooray, A. (2018). Asymmetric real exchange rates and poverty: The role of remittances. Emerging Markets Review, 35, 111-119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2018.02.001.
Asari, A., & Mazinani, A. (2011). Methods and indicators for measuring poverty and economic well-being. Development Strategy, 27, 76-101. (In Persian)
Asian Development Bank (2011). Poverty, inequality, and inclusive growth in Asia: Measurement, policy issues, and country studies. (Juzhong Zhuang (Ed.)). Anthem Press.
Ayyash, M., Sek, S. K., & Kole, A. (2025). Income inequality dynamics in ASEAN-5: a panel data approach using CS-ARDL to examine macroeconomic factors. Discover Sustainability, 6(1), 465. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01068-1
Bodea, C., Houle, C., & Kim, H. (2021). Do financial crises increase income inequality? World Development, 147, 105635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105635.
Breen, R., & Garcia-Peñalosa, C. (2005). Income inequality and macroeconomic volatility: An empirical investigation. Review of Development Economics, 9(3), 380-398. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2005.00283.x.
Bulir, A. (2001). Income inequality: Does inflation matter? IMF Staff Papers, 48(1), 139-159.
De Barros, R. P., Corseuil, C., Mendonça, R., & Reis, M. C. (2000). Poverty, inequality and macroeconomic instability. Economia Aplicada, 4(4), 743-761. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/220182.
Demery, L., & Addison, T. (1987). Stabilization Policy and Income Distribution in Developing Countries. World Development, 15(12), 1483-1498. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(87)90232-4
Ditta, A., & Hayat, M. A. (2017). Macroeconomic instability and its role on income inequality in developing countries. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 55(2), 613-636.
Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2002). Growth is good for the poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 7, 195-225. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020139631000.
Eghbali, A.R., Hallafi, H.R., & Gaskari, R. (2003). The Effects of Some Variables on Private Investment: The Case of Iran. Fourth International Scientific Confernce: Invstment in the Future, Proceeding International House of Scientists, F.J. Curie, Varna-Bulgaria, PP.43-53.
Elshahawany, D. N., & Elazhary, R. H. (2024). Government spending and regional poverty alleviation: evidence from Egypt. Asia-Pacific journal of regional science, 8(1), 111-135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-023-00318-2
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Erzurum Ciller, N. (2005). Various dimensions of poverty in Iran. Trend (Economic Research Trends), 27, 12-36. https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3647.html. (In Persian)
Eslami, M., & Hoseini, M. (2024). Poverty dynamics in Iran. Planning and Budgeting, 29(2), 173-40. http://dx.doi.org/10.61186/jpbud.29.2.3.
Ferreira, F. H., & Keely, L. C. (2000). The World Bank and structural adjustment: Lessons from the 1980s. The World Bank: Structure and policies, 3, 159.
Financial Glossary (2011). Financial Glossary. International Monetary Fund, April 2011 www.imf.org
Fischer, S. (1988). Real balances, the exchange rate, and indexation: Real variables in disinflation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(1), 27-49. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882641.
Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-512. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90027-D.
Gilak Hakimabadi, M. T., Zaroki, S., & Hasanzade, S. (2017). The effect of macroeconomic instability on financial crimes in Iran. Strategic Research on Social Problems, 6(1), 29-46. https://doi.org/10.22108/ssoss.2017.21278. (In Persian)
Glezer, E. (2025). How does conflict moderate the impact of remittances on income inequality in Latin American countries?. UCL Journal of Economics, 4(1), https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.2055
Gordon, D. (2006). The concept and measurement of poverty. In Poverty and Social Exclusion in Britain (pp. 29-70). Policy Press. https://doi.org/10.51952/9781447366843.ch002
Grespo. R. J. (2004). Macroeconomic Condition and Income Distribution in Venezuela. University of Bristol. https://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/media/workingpapers/working_papers/pdffiles/dp18703.pdf.
Habibi, F., Azizi, V., Manochehri, S., & Ali Moradi Afshar, P. (2024). Natural disasters, globalization, financial development and income inequality in Iran. Program and Development Research, 4(4), 7-42. https://doi.org/10.22034/pbr.2024.198799
Hajili Davaji, M., & Elmi, Z. (2024). The effects of good governance on income inequality with an emphasis on political instability. Iranian Economic Development Analyses, 10(1), 227-250. https://doi.org/10.22051/ieda.2024.46408.1406
Hausmann, R., & Gavin, M. (1996). Securing stability and growth in a shock prone region: The policy challenge for Latin America (No. 315). Working Paper. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011583
Heipertz, M., & Verdun, A. (2010). Ruling Europe: The politics of the stability and growth pact. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511750380
Karnameh Haghighi, H. (2012). The Consequences of Macroeconomic Instability on Poverty in Iran (1984-2008). PhD thesis. University of Isfahan, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Isfahan. http://qjerp.ir/article-1-127-fa.html (In Persian)
Kaulihowa, T., & Adjasi, C. (2018). FDI and income inequality in Africa. Oxford Development Studies, 46(2), 250-265. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2017.1381233?urlappend=%3Futm_source%3Dresearchgate.net%26medium%3Darticle
Kemal, A. R. (2001). Debt accumulation and its implications for growth and poverty. The Pakistan Development Review, 40(4), 263-281. https://doi.org/10.30541/v40i4Ipp.263-281
Khalid, M., Khan, A. A., & Jafri, M. K. (2023). Impact of macroeconomic instability on income inequality in South Asian countries. Journal of Management & Islamic Finance (GJMIF), 3(4). https://gjmif.com/index.php/GJMIF/article/view/66
Khodadad Kashi, F., & Tash, M. N. S. (2014). Effects of macroeconomic variables on poverty in Iran (Application of bootstrap technique). Theoretical and Applied Economics, 21(5), 594. 10.22096/esp.2010.26222
Komijani A., & Mohammadzadeh, F. (2014). The effect of inflation on income distribution and performance of compensation policies. qjerp, 22(69), 5-24. http://qjerp.ir/article-1-127-en.html (In Persian).
Kuznets, S. (1955) Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review, 45, 1-28.
Loko, M. B., Nallari, R., Kalonji, M. K. D., & Mlachila, M. M. (2003). The impact of external indebtednesson poverty in low-income countries. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451848199.001
Lustig, N., & Walton, M. (1999). Crises and the poor: a template for action. In Prepared for the Conference on Social Protection and Poverty in Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2948956
Maier, R. (2004). Macroeconomic Policy for Pro-poor Growth, Ph.D. Thesis in Ludwing- Maximilians University, Munich. https://edoc.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3149/1/Maier_Rolf.pdf
Maleki, P. (2015). The Effect of Exchange Rate Imbalance on Income Distribution: A Case Study of the Iranian Economy. Master's Thesis, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran. https://elmnet.ir/doc/10833676-12461 (In Persian)
Ngubane, M. Z., Mndebele, S., & Kaseeram, I. (2023). Economic growth, unemployment and poverty: Linear and non-linear evidence from South Africa. Heliyon, 9(10), e20267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20267
Noferesti, M. and Mohammadi, F. (2009). Analyzing the effects of macroeconomic shocks on income distribution in Iran. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 13(38), 31-52. https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3514.html?lang=en&lang=en&lang=en& lang=en (In Persian)
Obi, B. O. (2007). Fiscal policy and poverty alleviation: Some policy options for Nigeria.
Part, S., Khanzadi, A., & Karimi, M. (2021). Analyzing the effects of social capital supportive strategies: A focus on subsidy policies. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies, 9(33), 104-133. https://doi.org/10.30507/jmsp.2021.111383 (In Persian)
Paul, J. (2002). Inflation and macroeconomic instability in Madagascar. University of Toulose and Institute Universitaire Defrance, pp 2-10. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:csa:wpaper:2001-02
Petri, P. A. (1993). The Lessons of East Asia: Common Foundations of East Asian Success. World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/134881468770641850
Pishbahar, E., Bagherpour, S. & Ghahremanzadeh, M. (2019). Evaluation of rural poverty indicators and its' affecting factors in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics & Development, 33(1), 41-54. https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v0i0.73388 (In Persian)
Rafat Milani, M., Heidarian, M., & Arab YarMohammadi, J. (2024). Investigating the effects of government debt on the poverty in Iran; with smooth transition regression (STR) approach. Economic Policies and Research, 3(1), 62-89. https://doi.org/10.22034/jepr.2024.141551.1134
Raghfar H., Khoshdast F., & Yazdanpanah, M. (2012). Measurement of income inequality in Iran, 1984-2010. refahj. 12(45), 275-305. http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-1013-fa.html (In Persian)
Rahmani, T., Pourrahim, P., & Dehghan Manshadi, M. (2012). The examination of the relationship between macroeconomic policies instability and income distribution in developing countries. The Journal of Economic Policy, 4(8), 181-201. https://www.magiran.com/p1219330 (In Persian)
Rainwater, L. (1990). Poverty and equivalence as social constructions, 55. LIS Working Paper Series. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:lis:liswps:55
Ramey, G., & Ramey, V. A. (1994). Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2950979?origin=JSTOR-pdf
Ravallion, M. (1997). Can high-inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty?. Economics Letters, 56(1), 51-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00117-1
Ravallion, M. (2010). Poverty lines across the world. World bank policy research working paper, (5284). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00117-1
Sameti, M., & Behnoud, M. (2012). The impact of economic instability on human development in selected Asian countries, Economic Development Research, 5, 53-68. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.22285954.1397.8.31.1.8 (In Persian).
Shakeri, A,. Jahangard, E., & Etamei, S. (2013). The nonlinear effect of inflation on income inequality in Iran. Sustainable Growth and Development Research (Economic Research), 13(4), 27-53. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.17356768.1392.13.4.2.0 (In Persian)
Sheikh, M. R., & Alam, T. (2013). Does external indebtness enhance the incidence of poverty in pakistan? An empirical evidence. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 106, 17-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00117-1
Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281-314. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745.
Simionescu, M. (2025). Does finance contribute to income inequality in the European Union?. Borsa Istanbul Review, 25(6), 1116-1127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2025.06.010
Townsend, P. (1979) Poverty in the United Kingdom, London, Allen Lane and Penguin Books’ if quoting from this book.
Tyson, L. (1998). Commentary: how can economic policy strike a balance between economic efficiency and income equality. Income Inequality: Issues and Policy Options, 337-343. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:1998:p:337-343.
Yang, L. (2017) The relationship between poverty and inequality: concepts and measurement. CASEpapers (205). Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, London, UK. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/103491.
Younsi, M., & Bechtini, M. (2020). Economic growth, financial development, and income inequality in BRICS countries: does Kuznets’ inverted U-shaped curve exist?. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 11, 721-742. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-018-0569-2.
Zare Chamazakhti, M. R., Karimi Moughari, Z., & Zaroki, S. (2022). The impact of economic growth on poverty: A comparative study of the first and third development plans. Economics Research, 22(85), 95-118. https://doi.org/10.22054/joer.2023.71903.1111. (In Persian)
Zaroki, S. , Abdi Seyyedkolaee, M., & Yousefi barfurushi, A. (2021). Analyzing the role of macroeconomic instability on income inequality in Iran. Economic Research and Perspectives, 21(4), 37-66. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.17356768.1400.21.4.1.5
Zaroki, S., Abdi Seyed Kolai, M., & Yousefi Barfuroshi, A. (2021). Analyzing the role of macroeconomic instability on income inequality in Iran. Sustainable Growth and Development Research (Economic Research), 21(4), 37-63. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.17356768.1400.21.4.1.5 (In Persian). | ||
|
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 148 تعداد دریافت فایل اصل مقاله: 45 |
||