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نقش فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و سرمایه انسانی در تنوعبخشی صادرات ایران | ||
| نشریه سیاست ها و تحقیقات اقتصادی | ||
| مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 26 اردیبهشت 1405 | ||
| نوع مقاله: پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22034/jepr.2026.145625.1352 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| زانیار احمدپور1؛ احمد محمدی* 2؛ صلاح الدین منوچهری2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی کارشناسیارشد اقتصاد نظری، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علومانسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علومانسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| این پژوهش نقش فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات (ICT) و سرمایه انسانی را در تمرکز صادراتی ایران طی دوره ۱۹۹۵ تا ۲۰۲۳ بررسی میکند. برای سنجش تمرکز صادراتی از شاخص نرمالشده هرفیندال - هیرشمن (HHI) استفاده شده است؛ بهطوری که کاهش مقدار این شاخص نشاندهنده افزایش تنوع صادراتی است. برای بازتاب ماهیت چندبعدی توسعه دیجیتال، شاخص ترکیبی ICT با استفاده از تحلیل مؤلفههای اصلی (PCA) ساخته شده است. روابط بلندمدت میان متغیرها با روش حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا (DOLS) و با کنترل متغیرهای بازبودن تجاری، ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت و رانت منابع طبیعی برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد توسعه ICT اثر منفی و معناداری بر تمرکز صادراتی دارد و به کاهش وابستگی به سبد محدود کالاهای صادراتی کمک میکند. همچنین سرمایه انسانی نیز اثر منفی و معناداری بر تمرکز صادراتی دارد و نقش مهمی در تغییر ساختار صادراتی ایفا میکند. علاوه بر این، بازبودن تجاری و ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت نیز اثر منفی بر تمرکز صادراتی دارند، هرچند شدت اثر آنها کمتر است. در مقابل، رانت منابع طبیعی اثر مثبت و معناداری بر تمرکز صادراتی دارد که با فرضیه نفرین منابع سازگار است. بهطورکلی، نتایج نشان میدهد تنوعبخشی به صادرات نیازمند تقویت همزمان زیرساختهای دیجیتال و سرمایه انسانی و نیز کاهش وابستگی به منابع طبیعی است. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تمرکز صادراتی؛ تنوعبخشی صادرات؛ فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات؛ رانت منابع طبیعی | ||
| مراجع | ||
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